Estrela should be much fresher having not had to compete in midweek, but they have fallen short against Portugal's strongest teams this season, and we expect that trend to continue on Sunday.
Sporting are unlikely to run away with things given their gruelling fixture congestion in recent weeks, but they will be happy to secure a sixth successive win in any way possible in order to maintain their status at the division's summit ahead of a crucial derby match next week.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 78.62%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 6.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.73%) and 1-0 (11.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.84%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (2.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
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