While the hosts had shown signs of life leading up to the international break, they have been away from competitive action for the best part of the last month. Still, they have fared well against this opponent in the past, and while Estrela did play in the cup last weekend, their performance was not convincing. We are expecting a tight contest and feel these sides will end level at the final whistle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 53.15%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 22.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (6.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
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