Unbeaten in their last three matches, including impressive draws against Benfica and Braga, Casa Pia will head into the weekend with renewed confidence. While Vizela have enjoyed the better of this fixture, their form on the road is currently nothing to write home about and we see Os Gansos coming away with a narrow win in front of their home supporters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 39.93%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 32.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (7.48%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (10.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Vizela in this match.
0.03) 
-0.04) 
