After failing to win both home and away fixtures last season, Braga should expect another stern challenge from a resilient Famalicao side who enjoyed a solid campaign last season. While we expect the home side to put up a fight, we are backing Os Arcebispos to carry the momentum from their league opener and claim a slender win this weekend.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 36.64%. A win for Braga had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.91%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Braga win was 0-1 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.1) 
