Fourth-placed Braga will be playing only for pride having already secured their places in next season's Conference League. Buoyed by their victory over Portimonense, we are backing Arouca to build on that performance and force a share of the spoils on Sunday to keep their survival hopes alive. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 60.57%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 17.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.23%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.56%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Braga in this match.

Result
Braga	Draw	Arouca
60.57% ( 0.15)	22.23% ( -0.06)	17.2% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 49.18% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.42% (

0.13)

48.59% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.29% (

0.12)

70.71% (

-0.12)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.4% (

0.09)

15.6% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.42% (

0.18)

44.58% (

-0.17)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.27% (

-0.03)

41.74% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.8% (

-0.02)

78.2% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Braga 60.56%

Arouca 17.2%

Draw 22.22%

Braga	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 12.09% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 11.23% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.08% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.18% Total : 60.56%	1-1 @ 10.56% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.51% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0) Other @ 0.86% Total : 22.22%	0-1 @ 5.69% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0) Other @ 1.82% Total : 17.2%