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Primeira Liga | Gameweek 27
Mar 29, 2024 at 6pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
C

Benfica
1 - 0
Chaves

Neves (68')
Otamendi (45+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Pius (25'), Souza (31'), Hernandez (45'), Ribeiro (56'), Guimaraes (62'), Sousa (64'), Guzzo (65'), Fernandes (90+3')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Casa Pia 0-1 Benfica
Sunday, March 17 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Chaves 1-2 Guimaraes
Sunday, March 17 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Benfica 3-0 Chaves

While Chaves will be looking to find their feet this weekend, they are in for a tough 90 minutes against a significantly-superior Benfica side. Given the gulf in class and quality between the two sides, we are backing As Aguias to come away with a comfortable victory in front of their home supporters. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 82.35%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 6.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.08%) and 4-0 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.42%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-2 (1.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
BenficaDrawChaves
82.35% (-0.046999999999997 -0.05) 11.58% (0.026000000000002 0.03) 6.06% (0.018 0.02)
Both teams to score 47.83% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
70.42% (-0.063999999999993 -0.06)29.58% (0.062999999999999 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
49.32% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)50.68% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.69% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)5.31% (0.02 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
79.11% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)20.88% (0.058 0.06)
Chaves Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.51% (0.0039999999999978 0)49.49% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.7% (0.0039999999999996 0)84.3% (-0.0039999999999907 -0)
Score Analysis
    Benfica 82.36%
    Chaves 6.06%
    Draw 11.58%
BenficaDrawChaves
2-0 @ 11.32% (0.02 0.02)
3-0 @ 11.08%
4-0 @ 8.13% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-1 @ 7.96% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.79%
1-0 @ 7.71% (0.018 0.02)
4-1 @ 5.72% (-0.008 -0.01)
5-0 @ 4.78% (-0.013 -0.01)
5-1 @ 3.36% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.74%
6-0 @ 2.34% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.01% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
6-1 @ 1.64% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-2 @ 1.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
7-0 @ 0.98% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 3.6%
Total : 82.36%
1-1 @ 5.42% (0.013 0.01)
2-2 @ 2.8% (0.004 0)
0-0 @ 2.63% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 11.58%
1-2 @ 1.91% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
0-1 @ 1.85% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 6.06%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Casa Pia 0-1 Benfica
Sunday, March 17 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Rangers 0-1 Benfica
Thursday, March 14 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Benfica 3-1 Estoril
Sunday, March 10 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Benfica 2-2 Rangers
Thursday, March 7 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Porto 5-0 Benfica
Sunday, March 3 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-1 Benfica
Thursday, February 29 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Chaves 1-2 Guimaraes
Sunday, March 17 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Gil Vicente 0-0 Chaves
Monday, March 11 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Chaves 1-5 Arouca
Friday, March 1 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Estrela Amadora 1-1 Chaves
Saturday, February 24 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Chaves 2-1 Boavista
Saturday, February 17 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Moreirense 1-0 Chaves
Saturday, February 10 at 6pm in Primeira Liga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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