We expect this match to be a very tight affair as both sides have several quality players that should cancel each other out. There is a feeling that both sides will be cautious and smart with their approach given that they will face off in the league once again on Saturday. We are calling a draw but both sides should find the net in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 53.77%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 23.48% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
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