SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 82.4%. A draw had a probability of 11.5% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 6.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.82%) and 4-0 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.32%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-2 (1.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Estoril Praia |
82.4% ( -0.39) | 11.46% ( 0.23) | 6.14% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 49.05% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.56% ( -0.58) | 28.43% ( 0.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.72% ( -0.72) | 49.28% ( 0.71) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.91% ( -0.17) | 5.08% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 79.77% ( -0.52) | 20.23% ( 0.52) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.68% ( -0) | 48.32% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 16.53% ( -0) | 83.46% |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 2-0 @ 10.89% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 10.82% 4-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.09)2-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 7.87% ( -0)1-0 @ 7.32% ( 0.17)4-1 @ 5.86% ( -0.07)5-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 2.86% ( -0)6-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.02)6-1 @ 1.74% ( -0.06)5-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.03)7-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.93% Total : 82.38% | 1-1 @ 5.32% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.8% Total : 11.46% | 1-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.42% Total : 6.14% |
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