Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 61.26%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 18.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.58%) and 0-1 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.92%), while for a Tondela win it was 2-1 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
