Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 39.16%. A win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Krylia Sovetov win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Akhmat Grozny in this match.