Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Moscow win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Baltika had a probability of 31.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Baltika win was 0-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dynamo Moscow would win this match.
0.17) 
-0.27) 
