SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Akhmat Grozny | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Khimki | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Orenburg | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Fakel | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Khimki win with a probability of 41.88%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 31.3% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Khimki win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Khimki | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
41.88% ( 0.78) | 26.83% ( -0.45) | 31.3% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 50.46% ( 1.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.5% ( 1.64) | 54.5% ( -1.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.14% ( 1.35) | 75.86% ( -1.34) |
| Khimki Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.31% ( 1.17) | 25.7% ( -1.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.39% ( 1.57) | 60.61% ( -1.56) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.91% ( 0.62) | 32.1% ( -0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.43% ( 0.69) | 68.57% ( -0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Khimki | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 1-0 @ 11.2% ( -0.34) 2-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.92% ( 0.2)3-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.15)4-1 @ 1.33% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.31% Total : 41.87% | 1-1 @ 12.73% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 8.25% ( -0.54)2-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.18)Other @ 0.93% Total : 26.82% | 0-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.45) 1-2 @ 7.24% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.74% Total : 31.3% |
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