Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 47.62%. A win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 27.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Krylia Sovetov win was 0-1 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
-0.03) 
0.02) 
