Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 32.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 (8.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.