SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 53.11%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 22.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Arsenal Tula |
| 53.11% | 24.58% | 22.31% |
| Both teams to score 50.11% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.5% | 51.49% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.7% | 73.3% |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.65% | 19.34% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.87% | 51.12% |
| Arsenal Tula Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.13% | 37.86% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.36% | 74.64% |
| Score Analysis |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Arsenal Tula |
| 1-0 @ 12.03% 2-0 @ 9.88% 2-1 @ 9.6% 3-0 @ 5.41% 3-1 @ 5.26% 3-2 @ 2.55% 4-0 @ 2.22% 4-1 @ 2.16% 4-2 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.94% Total : 53.1% | 1-1 @ 11.68% 0-0 @ 7.32% 2-2 @ 4.66% Other @ 0.91% Total : 24.58% | 0-1 @ 7.11% 1-2 @ 5.67% 0-2 @ 3.45% 1-3 @ 1.84% 2-3 @ 1.51% 0-3 @ 1.12% Other @ 1.6% Total : 22.31% |
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