Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 53.11%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 22.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
