Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 51.61%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 25.11% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.
