Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nizhny Novgorod win with a probability of 46.53%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 25.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.24%) and 2-1 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.