Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 56.72%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.42%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 1-0 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.