Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 41.33%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 31.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.