SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Raith Rovers win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Motherwell had a probability of 32.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Raith Rovers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Motherwell win was 1-2 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Raith Rovers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Raith Rovers | Draw | Motherwell |
43.05% ( -0.03) | 24.57% ( 0.02) | 32.37% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 58.26% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.42% ( -0.09) | 44.57% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.05% ( -0.09) | 66.94% ( 0.09) |
| Raith Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.2% ( -0.06) | 20.8% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.54% ( -0.09) | 53.46% ( 0.08) |
| Motherwell Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.57% ( -0.04) | 26.43% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.4% ( -0.05) | 61.6% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Raith Rovers | Draw | Motherwell |
| 2-1 @ 9.02% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.63% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.78% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.55% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.85% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.39% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 43.05% | 1-1 @ 11.48% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.5% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.57% | 1-2 @ 7.64% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.32% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.87% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.39% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.16% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.13% ( -0)Other @ 3.21% Total : 32.37% |
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