SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 39.7%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 30.86% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.87%) and 2-1 (7.75%). The likeliest Alaves win was 0-1 (11.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burgos would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Burgos | Draw | Alaves |
39.7% ( 0.11) | 29.43% ( 0.07) | 30.86% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 43% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.23% ( -0.26) | 63.77% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.98% ( -0.19) | 83.02% ( 0.18) |
| Burgos Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.62% ( -0.07) | 31.38% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.25% ( -0.08) | 67.74% ( 0.07) |
| Alaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.66% ( -0.28) | 37.34% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.88% ( -0.28) | 74.12% ( 0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burgos | Draw | Alaves |
| 1-0 @ 13.57% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 7.87% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.04% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.99% Total : 39.69% | 1-1 @ 13.37% 0-0 @ 11.71% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.52% Total : 29.42% | 0-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.76% Total : 30.86% |
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