Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 55.71%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 18.54%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alaves would win this match.