Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugo win with a probability of 38.11%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 31.91% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.56%) and 2-1 (7.44%). The likeliest Alaves win was 0-1 (12.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
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