Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eldense win with a probability of 38.77%. A win for Amorebieta had a probability of 33.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eldense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Amorebieta win was 0-1 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Eldense would win this match.
0.71) 
-0.8) 
