Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugo win with a probability of 50.58%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Burgos had a probability of 22.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.36%), while for a Burgos win it was 0-1 (8.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lugo in this match.