Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 42.34%. A draw had a probability of 29.9% and a win for Amorebieta had a probability of 27.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 2-1 (7.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.26%), while for an Amorebieta win it was 0-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
