Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 46.06%. A win for Lugo had a probability of 27.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (8.74%). The likeliest Lugo win was 1-0 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
