Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 45.85%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 25.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.51%) and 1-2 (8.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.98%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 1-0 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.