Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 40.5%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Real Zaragoza had a probability of 29.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.24%) and 2-1 (7.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.37%), while for a Real Zaragoza win it was 0-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
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