Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Las Palmas win with a probability of 38.42%. A win for Tenerife had a probability of 31.81% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Las Palmas win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.6%) and 1-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Tenerife win was 1-0 (11.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.21) 
