Even if this edition of the derby is level late on, all is not over until the final whistle sounds: Roma have scored the most goals (nine) during the final 15 minutes of play in Serie A this season; Lazio have found the net just twice during the same time period.
They may not employ Maurizio Sarri's intricate passing patterns, but Jose Mourinho's men never know when they are beaten - and one goal could be enough to seal an overdue success against their capital-city rivals.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 43.52%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Roma had a probability of 28.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.08%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0.07) 
