SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.41%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 21.55%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (6.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Lazio |
55.41% ( -0.54) | 23.04% ( 0.6) | 21.55% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 53.93% ( -2.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.06% ( -2.75) | 45.94% ( 2.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.75% ( -2.66) | 68.25% ( 2.65) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.57% ( -1.15) | 16.43% ( 1.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.89% ( -2.11) | 46.1% ( 2.11) |
| Lazio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.53% ( -1.61) | 35.47% ( 1.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.76% ( -1.71) | 72.23% ( 1.7) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Lazio |
| 1-0 @ 10.52% ( 0.8) 2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 9.5% ( 0.38)3-1 @ 5.93% ( -0.26)3-0 @ 5.72% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.28)4-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.23)4-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.19)5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.13)5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.25% Total : 55.4% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.38) 0-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.65)2-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.25)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.03% | 0-1 @ 6.04% ( 0.44) 1-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.93% Total : 21.55% |
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