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NL
Serie A | Gameweek 38
Aug 1, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio San Paolo
LL

Napoli
3 - 1
Lazio

Fabian (9'), Insigne (54' pen.), Politano (90+2')
Koulibaly (15'), Rui (69'), Di Lorenzo (70'), Elmas (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Immobile (22')
Proto (70'), Immobile (72'), Milinkovic-Savic (90+4')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 45.17%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-2 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
NapoliDrawLazio
45.17%24.41%30.43%
Both teams to score 57.92%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.37%44.63%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.01%66.99%
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.11%19.89%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.99%52.01%
Lazio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.3%27.7%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.74%63.26%
Score Analysis
    Napoli 45.17%
    Lazio 30.43%
    Draw 24.41%
NapoliDrawLazio
2-1 @ 9.22%
1-0 @ 8.9%
2-0 @ 7.19%
3-1 @ 4.97%
3-0 @ 3.87%
3-2 @ 3.19%
4-1 @ 2.01%
4-0 @ 1.56%
4-2 @ 1.29%
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 45.17%
1-1 @ 11.42%
2-2 @ 5.92%
0-0 @ 5.51%
3-3 @ 1.36%
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.41%
1-2 @ 7.33%
0-1 @ 7.07%
0-2 @ 4.54%
1-3 @ 3.14%
2-3 @ 2.53%
0-3 @ 1.94%
1-4 @ 1.01%
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 30.43%


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