While Udinese are second only to Brighton for draws in the top five Euro leagues since October, they are unlikely to emerge with even a point from their encounter with the leaders, who will be eager to return to winning ways on Saturday.
Milan may lack the nous to succeed at the elite level, but their rebuild over recent years should still help them challenge for the Scudetto next spring, and increasing squad depth means they can brush off their hosts even with several men down.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 50.12%. A win for Udinese had a probability of 25.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.54%) and 0-2 (8.83%). The likeliest Udinese win was 1-0 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
