Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 47.4%. A win for Alessandria had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (8.92%). The likeliest Alessandria win was 1-0 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.
