Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 38.96%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 1-0 (11.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.