Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 42.75%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 30.21% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (9.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
0.57) 
-0.69) 
