Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 39.35%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 1-0 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.42) 
