Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 38.94%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 32.46% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.94%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Perugia win was 1-0 (11.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.

Result
Perugia	Draw	Genoa
32.46% ( 0.04)	28.59% ( 0.05)	38.94% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 45.67% (

-0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.31% (

-0.15)

60.68% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.24% (

-0.11)

80.76% (

0.12)

Perugia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.51% (

-0.06)

34.49% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.79% (

-0.06)

71.2% (

0.06)

Genoa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.72% (

-0.13)

30.27% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.55% (

-0.15)

66.45% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Perugia 32.46%

Genoa 38.94%

Draw 28.59%

Perugia	Draw	Genoa
1-0 @ 11.11% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.07% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.51% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.1% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.26% Total : 32.46%	1-1 @ 13.28% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.44% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.59%	0-1 @ 12.47% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.94% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 7.45% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.16% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.32% Total : 38.94%