SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 38.94%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 32.46% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.94%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Perugia win was 1-0 (11.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Perugia | Draw | Genoa |
32.46% ( 0.04) | 28.59% ( 0.05) | 38.94% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 45.67% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.31% ( -0.15) | 60.68% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.24% ( -0.11) | 80.76% ( 0.12) |
| Perugia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.51% ( -0.06) | 34.49% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.79% ( -0.06) | 71.2% ( 0.06) |
| Genoa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.72% ( -0.13) | 30.27% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.55% ( -0.15) | 66.45% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Perugia | Draw | Genoa |
| 1-0 @ 11.11% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.07% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.51% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.1% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.26% Total : 32.46% | 1-1 @ 13.28% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.44% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.59% | 0-1 @ 12.47% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.94% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 7.45% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.16% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.32% Total : 38.94% |
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