Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 49.77%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Cittadella had a probability of 22.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.48%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.57%), while for a Cittadella win it was 0-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
-0.3) 
0.16) 
