Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 46.69%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Sudtirol had a probability of 26.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.13%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Sudtirol win it was 0-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sampdoria in this match.
-0.02) 
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