Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Cittadella had a probability of 33.4% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.87%) and 0-2 (7.21%). The likeliest Cittadella win was 1-0 (11.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Genoa in this match.
-0.08) 
0.01) 
