Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 60.05%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 16.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.56%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.
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