Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 47.9%. A win for Reggiana had a probability of 26.05% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (8.97%). The likeliest Reggiana win was 1-0 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lecce would win this match.