Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 44.69%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Cittadella had a probability of 27.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%), while for a Cittadella win it was 0-1 (9.73%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.
0.23) 
-0.3) 
