Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 36.68%. A win for Cremonese had a probability of 36.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Cremonese win was 0-1 (10.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
0.16) 
-0.2) 
