Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 38.7%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 0-1 (10.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.22) 
