Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 45.45%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 28.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
0.15) 
-0.28) 
