Lecce can celebrate their 600th Serie A fixture by securing a crucial win that could effectively keep them in the top flight. Spezia do not travel well - 11 losses from 17 away games attest to that - and they could be left hoping Verona do not capitalise on another slip-up at Via del Mare. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 47.7%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 26.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (8.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.

Result
Lecce	Draw	Spezia
47.7% ( 0.34)	26.23% ( -0.05)	26.07% ( -0.29)

Both teams to score 49.13% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.29% (

-0)

54.71% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.97% (

-0)

76.03% (

0.01)

Lecce Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.05% (

0.15)

22.94% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.28% (

0.23)

56.72% (

-0.22)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.76% (

-0.25)

36.24% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.98% (

-0.25)

73.02% (

0.25)

Score Analysis

Lecce 47.7%

Spezia 26.07%

Draw 26.22%

Lecce	Draw	Spezia
1-0 @ 12.24% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 9.01% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 4.49% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.28% 4-1 @ 1.65% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.85% Total : 47.7%	1-1 @ 12.42% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.32% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.64% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.22%	0-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.89% Total : 26.07%