Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Galatasaray win with a probability of 45%. A win for Kayserispor had a probability of 28.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Galatasaray win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (8.32%). The likeliest Kayserispor win was 1-0 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.03) 
